【數據分析】滬鉛斷崖式去庫，后市庫存降幅將有緩沖

時間：2024-01-31 09:03瀏覽次數：6822來源：本站

據SMM顯(xian)示(shi)，截至1月(yue)29日，SMM鉛錠五地社會庫存總量(liang)至4.35萬(wan)噸，較(jiao)上周四(1月(yue)25日)持穩:較(jiao)上周一(yi)(1月(yue)22日)減(jian)少0.25萬(wan)噸，處于(yu)6個月(yue)以來的新低。

1月(yue)(yue)以來，鉛(qian)(qian)錠(ding)社庫(ku)(ku)不(bu)(bu)斷下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)跌，在(zai)1月(yue)(yue)中旬時(shi)(shi)更是呈現(xian)斷崖(ya)式下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)，主要(yao)原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)因，在(zai)月(yue)(yue)初時(shi)(shi)，多(duo)地(di)原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)冶煉(lian)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)檢(jian)(jian)修(xiu)增多(duo)，且再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)主要(yao)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)地(di)受(shou)(shou)到(dao)重(zhong)污染天(tian)氣(qi)預(yu)警(jing)，減產(chan)(chan)(chan)較(jiao)大(da)，鉛(qian)(qian)錠(ding)供應進一步(bu)收緊，而(er)元旦后(hou)(hou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)恢復常規(gui)采(cai)購，節(jie)(jie)后(hou)(hou)補庫(ku)(ku)較(jiao)多(duo)，鉛(qian)(qian)錠(ding)社會庫(ku)(ku)存延(yan)續(xu)(xu)降(jiang)勢。月(yue)(yue)中，部分原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)治(zhi)煉(lian)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)檢(jian)(jian)修(xiu)后(hou)(hou)有(you)所(suo)恢復，加(jia)(jia)上(shang)再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)治(zhi)煉(lian)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)在(zai)環(huan)保限(xian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)結束后(hou)(hou)恢復正常生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)，供應有(you)所(suo)增加(jia)(jia)，而(er)在(zai)滬鉛(qian)(qian)強(qiang)勢持(chi)續(xu)(xu)上(shang)漲下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)，期(qi)現(xian)價(jia)差擴大(da)，部分持(chi)貨商交倉意(yi)原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)上(shang)升，在(zai)交割(ge)日臨近下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)，交割(ge)品(pin)牌移(yi)庫(ku)(ku)交倉導致社庫(ku)(ku)轉增。隨(sui)后(hou)(hou)，原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)煉(lian)廠(chang)(chang)檢(jian)(jian)修(xiu)維持(chi)，安(an)徽地(di)區再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)煉(lian)廠(chang)(chang)環(huan)保限(xian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)再現(xian)，再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)煉(lian)廠(chang)(chang)限(xian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)頻繁，加(jia)(jia)上(shang)有(you)小部分煉(lian)廠(chang)(chang)進入(ru)春(chun)節(jie)(jie)放(fang)假(jia)狀態，再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)供應缺口擴大(da)，同時(shi)(shi)，下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)鉛(qian)(qian)蓄電池企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)處于春(chun)節(jie)(jie)備(bei)(bei)庫(ku)(ku)時(shi)(shi)段，鉛(qian)(qian)錠(ding)交割(ge)后(hou)(hou)貨源(yuan)流出就被下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)采(cai)購消(xiao)化，鉛(qian)(qian)綻社會庫(ku)(ku)存隨(sui)之下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)。直到(dao)月(yue)(yue)末，鉛(qian)(qian)錠(ding)社會庫(ku)(ku)存下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)趨勢仍(reng)然(ran)維持(chi)，不(bu)(bu)過(guo)鉛(qian)(qian)價(jia)相(xiang)對高位(wei)，下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)接受(shou)(shou)度較(jiao)差，加(jia)(jia)上(shang)在(zai)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)春(chun)節(jie)(jie)前(qian)備(bei)(bei)庫(ku)(ku)陸續(xu)(xu)完成下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)，下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)將進入(ru)較(jiao)為(wei)集中放(fang)假(jia)時(shi)(shi)段，且物流減少(shao)，鉛(qian)(qian)錠(ding)社會庫(ku)(ku)存大(da)幅去庫(ku)(ku)趨勢結束。后(hou)(hou)續(xu)(xu)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)放(fang)假(jia)持(chi)續(xu)(xu)進行(xing)，而(er)部分再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)與原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)廠(chang)(chang)同樣有(you)計劃放(fang)假(jia)或者檢(jian)(jian)修(xiu)，將供需雙(shuang)降(jiang)，短期(qi)內庫(ku)(ku)存變動空間不(bu)(bu)大(da)，小幅累(lei)庫(ku)(ku)或持(chi)穩為(wei)主，矛盾不(bu)(bu)大(da)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)或將使滬鉛(qian)(qian)期(qi)價(jia)震蕩(dang)為(wei)主。

研究員：蔡(cai)躍輝

期(qi)貨從業(ye)資格號(hao)F0251444

期貨投資咨詢(xun)從業證書(shu)號Z0013101

助理研(yan)究員：

李秋(qiu)榮(rong) 期(qi)貨(huo)從業資格號F03101823

王凱慧期貨從業資格號F03100511

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